October 2026 Market Update

In September, the cycle met its first real resistance, and it came from rates rather than the economy.

On September 16, the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, and the bond market went further. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 54 basis points to 5.29%, its largest monthly move in four years, and closed above its 2007 peak. It kept climbing even after inflation came in cooler than expected, suggesting investors are demanding a higher price to lend, not bracing for runaway prices. That rate shock split the market: technology was the only sector with a real gain, while 387 of the S&P 500’s 500 names fell, and rate-sensitive groups like utilities, real estate, and municipal bonds took the brunt. Underneath the noise, the businesses are holding up. Payrolls rebounded, second-quarter GDP was revised higher, and third-quarter earnings are expected to grow nearly 30%.

Our October 2026 Market & Economic Review breaks it all down, including our late-cycle scorecard, the September rate shock and what it means for bond investors, the narrowing equity market, and the three key takeaways from our Centralized Investment Committee.

Read the full report below.

The commentary, data, and visuals provided are not intended to be investment advice. Please seek the advice of an independent financial advisor for your personal financial decisions.