June 2026 Market Update

May offered a strong month for equity markets, but the underlying data tells a more nuanced story than the headline numbers suggest.

The S&P gained 5.3% on the month, yet 286 of its 500 members declined. The move was driven almost entirely by AI infrastructure earnings, with names like Dell (+101%) and Micron (+88%) posting historic results tied to the ongoing capex buildout. Q1 net margins hit 13.4%, the highest in over 15 years, and the forward P/E actually contracted in May, meaning stocks rose because earnings rose, not because sentiment did.

Underneath the equity story, the bond market sent a different message. Rates climbed sharply after a stronger-than-expected ADP print, with the 30-year crossing 5% before settling at 4.99%. Markets entered May pricing in zero cuts and exited with an 85% probability of a rate hike by year-end. That's a full reversal from January, when two cuts were consensus.

Add in the lingering effects of the March oil shock, tariff pass-through still building in the pipeline, and a labor market reshaped by AI and immigration enforcement, and the picture becomes more layered. The fundamentals remain constructive, but the margin for error has narrowed.

Our June 2026 Market & Economic Review breaks it all down, including a closer look at the AI revenue cascade, the four stories reshaping the labor market, the three forces driving inflation, and the key takeaways from our Centralized Investment Committee.

Read the full report below.

The commentary, data, and visuals provided are not intended to be investment advice. Please seek the advice of an independent financial advisor for your personal financial decisions.